Optimal investment under operational flexibility, risk aversion, and uncertainty

Traditional real options analysis addresses the problem of investment under uncertainty assuming a risk-neutral decision maker and complete markets. In reality, however, decision makers are often risk averse and markets are incomplete. We confirm that risk aversion lowers the probability of investment and demonstrate how this effect can be mitigated by incorporating operational flexibility in the form of embedded suspension and resumption options. Although such options facilitate investment, we find that the likelihood of investing is still lower compared to the risk-neutral case. Risk aversion also increases the likelihood that the project will be abandoned, although this effect is less pronounced. Finally, we illustrate the impact of risk aversion on the optimal suspension and resumption thresholds and the interaction among risk aversion, volatility, and optimal decision thresholds under complete operational flexibility. ∗Department of Statistical Science, University College ondon, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom †Department of Management Science & Innovation, University College London, London WC1E 6BT, United Kingdom ‡London Business School, Regent’s Park, London NW1 4SA, United Kingdom §Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University/KTH, Stockholm, Sweden